Sher Verick

The pace of progress on the SDGs in general, and on jobs, social protection and just transitions in particular, has been uneven across countries. Access to decent and productive jobs and social protection continues to elude billions. Sustained progress on jobs, social protection and just transitions cannot be achieved without proactive, engaged macroeconomic policies. Conversely, full and productive employment and social protection are critical to bolstering the capacities of a country as it navigates short-term crises and reduces longer-term vulnerabilities. Global experience and lessons learned from the rise of Asia, from the 2008 global financial crisis or more recently from the Covid-19 pandemic and the impending green transition have exposed the limits of a narrow focus on stability, and highlighted instead the critical role of macroeconomic policies in promoting productive capacities and employment and the extension of social protection and essential services. This Practitioner’s guide has been developed to assist evidence-based and stakeholder-driven policy dialogue at country level. Finance ministries, central banks and other core macroeconomic players are critical to advancing decent jobs, social protection and just transitions agendas. And equally important is the engagement of labour, social and sectoral ministries, and business and worker representatives in determining fiscal space and other macro-policy choices. The focus is on country-specific and global evidence to inform a broad-based policy dialogue that supports the convergence of the macro and the wider socioeconomic agendas.

Over recent decades, the importance of studying labour market transitions has been recognized both amongst policymakers who focus on getting people out of unemployment and into jobs and academics who have used the increasing availability of relevant data to measure transitions and identify their determinants. At the same time, sociologists have developed a more holistic approach to studying transitions by applying a life course perspective, which takes a historical view of changes and involves transitions not only related to the labour market but also others that are central to both work and family life, e.g. shift from paid to unpaid work and exit from the labour force and into retirement. This more encompassing view of how the world of work interacts with other spheres of our lives is also in line with the challenges being posed by future of work trends, together with the impact of COVID-19. To bring a life course perspective to the analysis of labour market transitions requires different methodologies, and depends heavily on data availability, which is a major challenge in developing countries. For this reason, the choice of methodology needs to be based on an assessment of available data and the research/policy objectives. This paper provides some insights that will help further research on labour market transitions using a life course perspective. Further research in this area will help shed more light on the nature of transitions and how they are being impacted by not only the future of work drivers, but also the COVID-19 crisis. In addition, this analysis will provide important inputs in identifying the elements that make up decent labour market transitions, ones which reflect people’s agency and their ability to freely choose the steps of their course, in line with their personal values.

In India, while contribution of agriculture to GDP has been declining, agriculture still remains mainstay of the rural economy by employing almost half of the population. However, the gap between job seekers in rural areas and employment opportunities in agriculture has been widening and non-farm sector has become an increasingly important source of livelihood. This paper analyses rural diversification across States in rural India, factors responsible for non-agricultural employment, and identifies industries within rural non-farm sector which are generating employment opportunities. Further, paper also looks into role of agriculture in rural diversification. This study is based on Employment and Unemployment Survey (National sample Survey Organization) for the years 1999-2000 & 2011-12, and All India Debt & Investment Survey (National sample Survey Organization) for the years 2002-3 & 2012-13. The broad story that emerged from this analysis is that of a significant shift towards non-farm employment in rural areas, and this shift happened predominantly among economically weaker sections of the rural society. Access to land was an important determinant in this process of rural employment diversification.

This paper reviews the literature on female labour force participation and women’s employment, with the aim of better understanding the drivers of labour market outcomes. This paper also attempts to explore the situation of women globally and in South Asia, through an examination of long-term trends of female employment. It goes further, explaining the reasons for the falling participation of women in the Indian labour market. In doing so, an econometric analysis has been carried out to understand the most important factors that may affect their probability of being in any of the various labour market outcomes, separately for the rural and urban labour markets in India. The findings reveal the importance of education, especially of post-secondary schooling.