Abstract
The world economy will grow by 3.0 per cent in 2015 - the slowest rate since the crisis - and 3.5 per cent in 2016. Emerging market economies have slowed, while recoveries remain hesitant in most developed countries. Growth may be boosted by delayed effects of lower oil prices, as well as by accommodative monetary policy and slower fiscal consolidation, but considerable risks remain. We still expect the US Federal Reserve to lead the turn in official policy rates in September, with the Bank of England following in February 2016.