Abstract
What is the potential impact of the ASEAN Economic Community 2015 on the occupational structure of ASEAN Member Countries? Building on the sectoral output and employment impacts of the AEC derived from a separate computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this paper develops an innovative occupational projections model to examine the projected shifts in occupational demand and in the occupational structure of the economy to determine potential skills mismatches that may ensue. The paper identifies the occupations that are likely to have the highest demand as ASEAN economic integration progresses in six ASEAN Member Countries (Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam), with potential implications for the education, TVET and skills system in the countries. With the AEC likely to lead to an increase in both the demand for and supply of workers in occupations that are linked to the informal economy, the paper argues for the critical need to strengthen social protection systems in ASEAN Member Countries.